Calculator

Rent vs buy, without the fixed assumptions

Every rent-vs-buy calculator asks for one mortgage rate, one rent increase and one appreciation number, then projects thirty years as if none of them will ever move. None of those three has held still for thirty months, let alone thirty years.

This one lets each of them change on a schedule you set, month by month — and lets you skip the rates entirely and just say what you think the place will be worth.

What it does differently

Rates that move, to the month: Mortgage, appreciation, rent, returns and inflation each follow a schedule you set — stepping on a given month, or gliding there gradually.
Amounts, not just percentages: Pin what the house will be worth, or what the rent will be, on dates you choose. The growth between them is worked out for you.
The tax maths done properly: Mortgage interest is worth only what it saves you above the standard deduction, with property tax competing under the SALT cap.
The lumpy costs: A kitchen in one year and nothing the next, extra principal, PMI dropping off, an assessment some states cap — all where they actually fall.

Start from a scenario

Rates near 6.6%, prices growing slowly then normalising, rent growth soft for two years.

You buy in

You stay

yrs

Runs to Sep 2056.

Home price

Down payment

≈ $90,000 · of the price

Loan of $360,000.

Loan term

Buying breaks even after

Never

On these assumptions renting stays ahead for the whole 30-year projection. Buying wins only if you stay longer, pay less, or the market moves your way.

Net worth gap at year 30

−$536k

in favour of renting

Monthly cost, year 1

$4k

vs $2k renting

Monthly cost, year 30

$6k

vs $5k renting

Cash needed up front

$101k

vs $2k renting

What you pay each month, and the gap between them

The number most people actually feel. Owning starts higher and stays flat; rent starts lower and climbs. The shaded gap is what buying costs you — or saves you — every month.

Own

Rent

Net worth, if you sold and moved that year

The longer view. Both paths start with the same cash. The buyer puts it into a house; the renter invests it and keeps investing whatever they save each month. Selling costs and capital gains tax are already deducted.

Buy

Rent and invest the difference

Where the money goes each year

Only the orange band builds equity. Everything else is the cost of holding the asset — and it is the part that keeps growing.

Mortgage interest

Principal (becomes equity)

Property tax

Insurance

Maintenance

HOA, PMI & utilities

Improvements

How sensitive is that answer?

Nobody knows next decade's appreciation or rent growth, so here is the break-even year across a range of both. Your current assumption is ringed. A dash means buying never catches up inside your horizon.

rent growth per year →

soonerlaternever inside 30 years
appreciation ↓	1%	2%	3%	4%	5%	6%
0%	—	—	—	—	27	21
1%	—	—	—	—	26	20
2%	—	—	—	—	23	17
3%	—	—	—	—	18	13
4%	—	—	—	18	11	8.9
5%	—	—	8.0	6.8	6.1	5.6

Where you would stand

Everything paid from 2026 to the year you pick, against what you have to show for it.

inyear 30 of 30

If you bought

Money out

Down payment and closing: $101,250
Mortgage payments: $828,558
Tax, insurance, upkeep: $805,322
Less tax saved by itemising: −$11,110
Total out: $1,724,020

What you have

The house is worth: $1,204,283
Mortgage still owed: $0
Cost to sell it: −$84,300
Tax on the gain: −$23,810

Net worth$1.1M

If you rented

Money out

Deposit and any fees: $2,350
Rent: $1,316,526
Renters insurance: $9,483
Total out: $1,328,359

What you have

Property owned: nothing
Deposit back: $2,350
Invested savings: $1,629,517

Net worth$1.6M

In 2056, renting is $535,694 ahead. Buying does not catch up inside 30 years on these assumptions.

Where the defaults come from

US, September 2026

mortgage Rate: 6.61% — Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed, week of 27 Aug 2026
appreciation: 3.5% long run. FHFA's 1975–2025 average is 4.3%; the March 2026 Reuters analyst survey puts 2026 at 1.8%
rent Growth: 3.0% long run. Zillow's June 2026 forecast is 3.1% single-family / 2.0% multifamily for 2026
property Tax: 1.10% — national average effective rate, 2026. NJ is 2.23%, HI 0.27%
insurance: $2,490/yr at $400k dwelling coverage; rising ~4% in 2026 after ~12% in 2025 (Insurify)
improvements: None by default. Real improvement spend is lumpy — nothing for years, then a kitchen — so it is entered as dated work rather than an annual budget. Kitchen and bath remodels recoup roughly 50–75% at resale
maintenance: 1.5% of value. The '1% rule' understates it — Bankrate now uses 2%, and average spend hit $8,808 in 2025
pmi: 0.55%/yr of the original loan. Range is 0.3–1.5%, driven mostly by credit score
closing Buy: 2.5% of price — buyer-side closing costs typically run 2–5%
closing Sell: 7.0% of price — 5.70% average total commission in 2026 plus ~1.3% transfer taxes and fees
investment: 7.0% nominal — a long-run diversified-equity assumption, before capital gains tax
inflation: 2.5% — long-run CPI assumption
hoa: $0 by default. The national average where one exists is roughly $300/month
renters Insurance: $18/month — the US average is $15–23

Tax figures are 2026: a $16,100 standard deduction for single filers and $32,200 married, a $40,400 SALT cap, mortgage interest deductible on the first $750,000 of debt, and the $250k/$500k exclusion on gain from selling a home you have lived in for two of the last five years. The SALT cap is scheduled to fall back to $10,000 in 2030 unless Congress acts, which would make owning worth less than this model shows in later years. None of this is financial advice, and it deliberately ignores the reasons to buy or rent that are not about money.